The Art Market Is Doubling Down on the Gulf Despite the War With Iran
Observer ·
Christie’s, Sotheby’s, Frieze and Art Basel are pushing ahead with auctions, fairs and outposts in Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Doha, even as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz persist. Whether the rewards will outweigh the risks may depend on the continued enthusiasm of the new and younger buyers currently driving growth in the region's luxury economy.
Just three weeks after the inaugural Art Basel Qatar closed, the U.S. and Israel launched a military offensive against Iran. As the art world descended on the Gulf, U.S. warships were moving into the region in preparation for potential military action. Eight months later, a ceasefire has paused large-scale combat, but the conflict remains unresolved. October brought renewed attacks on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and two days before Israel’s general election, which has since left the country in a new political crisis, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted an A.I.-generated image depicting a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv.
The war took a toll on the Gulf’s booming high-end retail economy: luxury sales at Dubai’s Mall of the Emirates reportedly fell 30-50 percent year over year in March, while Kering’s regional retail revenue declined 11 percent in the first quarter. Yet even with tensions persisting around the Strait of Hormuz, a July 2026 report by Mordor Intelligence projected that the Gulf Cooperation Council’s luxury-goods market would reach $16.53 billion this year and $26.66 billion by 2031, with the United Arab Emirates accounting for nearly half of regional spending.
That resilience—and the promise of further growth—help explain why the art world is gearing up for a full calendar of events across the Gulf in the coming months. Art Dubai may have postponed its 20th edition to May 2026, staging a much smaller and more regionally focused fair, but the auction houses and other major fairs are pressing ahead despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.
On Nov. 1, Christie's staged its inaugural Abu Dhabi auction, MAWASIM: 20 Years of Modern and Contemporary Middle Eastern Art , which achieved $8,940,800 across 70 lots—the highest total for a Christie’s Modern and Contemporary Middle Eastern Art Evening Sale in more than 10 years. The sale, held at the Abu Dhabi EDITION, traced nearly a century of art from the Middle East and North Africa, with pieces by pioneering modernists and internationally established contemporary names such as Ali Banisadr . Notably, more than 30 percent of registrants were Millennials and Gen Z, and 37 percent were new to Christie’s, further evidence of the region’s growth potential.
Most lots exceeded their estimates, and the sale set artist records for Jellal Ben Abdallah, Paul Guiragossian, Faisel Laibi Sahi, Juliana Seraphim, Nabil Kanso, Samia Halaby , Rami Farook, Fatma Lootah and Afra Al Dhaheri. Guiragossian and Halaby also set new records for their respective mediums, while Kanso, Farook, Lootah and Al Dhaheri made their auction debuts.
Leading the sale was Monir Shahroudy Farmanfarmaian’s Variations on the Hexagon (2006), which sold for $844,800 after nearly seven minutes of competitive bidding, far eclipsing its $150,000-250,000 estimate. Other strong results came from artists who have gained greater international recognition in recent years, thanks in part to the attention generated by fairs and auctions in the region. Among them was Palestinian-born Lebanese artist Juliana Seraphim, whose seductive, mysterious Femme Fleur (Flower Woman) , a surreal canvas encapsulating her dreamlike and deeply sensorial world, fetched $83,200 against a $25,000-35,000 estimate.
New York-based Palestinian artist Samia Halaby, who was included in this year’s Whitney Biennial and had several works on view at Mathaf in Doha during Art Basel Qatar, is also enjoying renewed momentum. Her 2013 abstraction Takheel I reached $204,800 against a $120,000-180,000 estimate, while another abstract canvas, Yesterday , sold toward the end of the evening for $358,400, just above its high estimate.
The vivid, primitivist style of Jerusalem-born Lebanese modernist Paul Guiragossian is attracting fresh attention as well. His Wedding set a new artist record at $486,400 against a $300,000-450,000 estimate, while an earlier lot, the more abstract and luminous allegorical composition Nuit et Jour, La Fuite (Night and Day, The Flight) , brought $128,000 over its $70,000-100,000 estimate.
Pioneering Turkish abstract artist Fahrelnissa Zeid also fared well. Her kaleidoscopic geometry and luminous colors were inspired by her experience of seeing Baghdad from the air, as well as by Islamic architecture, Byzantine mosaics and stained glass. Her Composition (1948-1949) sold for $524,800 against a $500,000-700,000 estimate. Its documented provenance added to its significance: the painting was photographed hanging in Zeid’s studio at the Iraqi Embassy in London, where she worked after her husband, Prince Zeid Al-Hussein , was appointed Iraq’s ambassador in 1946, and it remained in her possession through the upheavals that followed the 1958 Iraqi Revolution. Recent auction results show sustained interest in the artist, particularly in works from the 1950s and 1960s; her current record stands at $2.74 million, set at Christie’s Dubai in 2013. Another work by Zeid, the portrait Endless Thoughts , sold later in the evening for $486,400, exceeding its $200,000-300,000 estimate.
Underscoring its confidence in the region’s buying power, Christie’s also previewed several top lots from its November auctions at the hotel on Al Bateen Marina. These included Wassily Kandinsky ’s masterpiece Betonte Ecken (1923), estimated at $60-80 million; Mark Rothko ’s Untitled (1968), at $10-15 million; and Pablo Picasso ’s Tête de femme (1939), at $12-18 million. In all, Christie’s reports it brought more than $130 million worth of art to Abu Dhabi.
Frieze’s first venture into the Gulf—an inaugural Abu Dhabi edition that builds on the legacy of the long-running Abu Dhabi Art fair—runs Nov. 19-22 at Manarat Al Saadiyat in the Saadiyat Cultural District with Frieze Sculpture Abu Dhabi on view from Nov. 16 to Dec. 16. Organizers say they are closely monitoring geopolitical developments and remain in regular contact with participants and invited guests as preparations continue. “One thing animating this edition is the shared belief across Frieze and DCT that culture is important, even more so in challenging times, and that people’s cultural lives are vital,” Frieze Abu Dhabi director Dyala Nusseibeh told Observer when asked about the situation. “It is essential that we continue to support artists, galleries and the wider cultural ecosystem, even in difficult circumstances.”
That same week, Nomad Abu Dhabi returns to Terminal 1 of the former Abu Dhabi International Airport. Presented in partnership with Abu Dhabi’s Department of Culture and Tourism, the second edition gathers galleries and exhibitors spanning collectible design, contemporary art, jewelry and craft, with presentations taking over the old boarding gates alongside new commissions and site-specific installations.
Not long after, on December 11, the long-awaited Guggenheim Abu Dhabi will open its doors . Two decades in the making, the Frank Gehry -designed museum, set on a waterfront site on Saadiyat Island, will be the largest in the Guggenheim network. It will present modern and contemporary art through a global, cross-cultural lens, with particular emphasis on West Asia, North Africa and South Asia, placing these artistic histories in dialogue with international developments.
Around the same time, Sotheby's will host the second edition of its Collectors’ Week, which this year includes six auctions, a public exhibition and a series of events, talks and masterclasses, all staged at the Saadiyat Grove Experience Center. The week culminates on December 10 with Breaking Ground , Sotheby’s first fine art auction in Abu Dhabi, which pairs international blue-chip names with historically significant artists from the region. Among the top lots are Claude Monet ’s Prunes et Abricots (1882-1885), estimated at $2-2.6 million; a colorful Andy Warhol Ads print portfolio, at $2-3 million; and a Fernando Botero sculpture—a clothed female figure, rather than one of his more characteristic nudes—at $350,000-550,000. They will be offered alongside artworks by established regional names such as Sayed Haider Raza (est. $150,000-250,000) and Mohamed Ahmed Ibrahim (est. $80,000-120,000), as well as artists making their auction debuts, including Najat Makki (est. $30,000-50,000) and Nasser Al-Yousif (est. $50,000-70,000). From Botero to international artists whose handling of color and atmosphere may especially resonate with local collectors, such as Salvo with a desert landscape (est. $70,000-100,000) and Jadé Fadojutimi (est. $500,000-700,000), the selection is pitched squarely at the region’s tastes.
As Katia Nounou Boueiz , head of Sotheby’s U.A.E. and chairman, Middle East, explained in a recent interview with the National , the auction house’s ambition is “not simply to ‘bring’ the international art market to Abu Dhabi, but to help connect and embed Abu Dhabi even more deeply within the international art market.”
This locally attuned strategy paid off last year, when the inaugural Collectors’ Week generated $133.4 million in sales , with nearly 30 percent of bidders under 40 and more than 5,000 visitors attending exhibitions and masterclasses. The undisputed star of that decidedly more luxury-focused series was a 1994 McLaren F1 , which sold for $25.3 million after a tense four-way battle among bidders in the room and on the phones. Earlier in 2025, Sotheby’s had staged its first-ever auction in Saudi Arabia, a cross-category sale in Diriyah, near Riyadh, that totaled $17.3 million across 117 lots.
Sotheby’s commitment to the region extends to Dubai, where last week it opened its new, expanded gallery and salon to the public, marking its 10th year with a physical presence in the U.A.E. The company describes the move as the beginning of a “significant new era for the business,” as it prepares to hold auctions there more regularly, bringing the location in line with its other global hubs. The space’s new street-facing façade, with floor-to-ceiling windows, and its interiors, finished in a refined palette of heritage materials, reflect the “new world” strategy Sotheby’s has rolled out worldwide, transforming them into boutique destinations for luxury experiences that extend beyond traditional connoisseurship and the conventional auction business model.
The opening exhibition presents highlights from many of Sotheby’s collecting categories, from works of art to jewelry, watches, Hermès handbags and sought-after collector cars, once again tailored to the interests of regional clients. Anchoring the show is a major loan from Dubai-based collector Elie Khouri , including important works by Amoako Boafo , George Condo , Stanley Whitney , Günther Förg and Alighiero Boetti .
“From the outset of the conflict, we have been closely monitoring developments on a daily basis,” Nounou Boueiz told Observer, stressing that while the auction house recognizes the seriousness of the situation, it remains optimistic about long-term opportunities in the Middle East. “Our recent announcements are a testament to our confidence in the region’s thriving arts and cultural landscape, both today and for the future… While the region may face challenges in the short term, it is important to recognize just how far it has come in establishing itself as a global cultural destination, and the tremendous potential that still lies ahead.”
Middle Eastern collectors remain a significant force in Sotheby’s global sales. According to the auction house, bidding from the region has risen 70 percent over the past five years, while total spending by regional clients has nearly doubled. In 2025, almost 45 percent of bidders from the Middle East were new to Sotheby’s, and more than 30 percent were under 40. The luxury division drew a record number of bidders and buyers from the region, up 20 percent overall, with watches rising 122 percent and jewelry 30 percent. Such figures explain why Sotheby’s continues to invest despite the geopolitical uncertainty. Capital flows in the other direction as well: in October 2024, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, ADQ, led a $1 billion capital injection into the company, acquiring a minority stake, and it is helping to support this expansion.
Art Basel Qatar is even more directly embedded in a broader state-led diplomatic and cultural strategy. Its second edition will take place Jan. 28-30, 2027 (with preview days on Jan. 26 and 27) across M7 and the Doha Design District in Msheireb Downtown Doha. The fair will feature 80 new single-artist presentations by 82 galleries from 37 countries and territories, all responding to the theme “between / بين,” conceived under the artistic direction of Iraqi curator Wassan Al-Khudhairi . Approximately 50 percent of the artists hail from the MENASA region, reinforcing the fair’s connection to its geographic context and its commitment to foregrounding both regional and international voices. In the same spirit, the fair is launching Collectors Majlis, an invitation-only pilot masterclass program designed to cultivate local patronage among a cohort of approximately 30 to 40 new, emerging and art-adjacent collectors.
Returning visitors will also find new venues and exhibitions in Doha, including Doha Pavilion: Gerhard Richter , a permanent, site-specific structure conceived by the artist and realized with Selldorf Architects, which opens in MIA Park on Nov. 20. Another major addition is Rubaiya Qatar, the country’s new contemporary art quadrennial, which runs across multiple venues in Doha from November through the end of April.
Once again, Art Basel Qatar involves partnerships with Qatar Sports Investments (QSI) and QC+, with Visit Qatar as lead partner—an unusually direct alignment between an international commercial art fair and a nation’s cultural and economic agenda, reflecting Qatar’s broader strategy of leveraging art and culture to consolidate its global influence, much as its neighbors, the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia, have sought to do.