Santa Claus or Tony Soprano? Trump’s midterm ‘goodies’ are conditioned on GOP control
PolitiFact ·
President Donald Trump is crisscrossing the country in campaign mode like a Republican Santa Claus, pulling out promised “goodies” for voters — a manufacturing facility here, a military academy there and $5,000 checks.
There’s just one condition: Voters have to keep Republicans in control of Congress for the final two years of his second term.
As he visits red states, some with tossup races that will determine congressional control, Trump has said he will deliver healthcare settlement money to veterans and a Space Academy. He said he would send hurricane relief money to North Carolina if the Republican wins, before adding he was “joking.”
At an Oct. 19 Kansas rally , he said if voters want low-cost diesel fuel, they must vote for the Republicans running for governor and U.S. Senate.
“You have to do it,” Trump said. “And some more goodies. You know, I always heard that when you’re president, you have a little bit of an advantage and I sort of see why now, actually.”
Trump’s blunt transactional style sets him apart from other presidents.
“Presidents routinely promise that if their party retains control of Congress, they will enact programs that benefit a particular constituency or interest group. That’s normal politics,” John Pitney, a Claremont McKenna College American politics professor, said. “Trump is different. He suggested — and sometimes said outright — that he will personally grant benefits only if he gets an election result he wants.”
Here’s what Trump has promised voters ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms.
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At the Kansas rally , Trump praised U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall, the Republican seeking re-election against Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, and tied the contest to gasoline prices.
In an effort to address high costs at the pump, the Environmental Protection Agency in March issued a temporary emergency fuel waiver to allow nationwide sales of gasoline with a 15% ethanol blend to be sold starting in May. Known as E15, it is slightly cheaper than conventional gasoline but is usually prohibited in the summer because of concerns that it adds smog in high temperatures.
“I also gave Kansas a waiver to sell E15 all year round. And with Roger Marshall in the Senate, we will make year-round E15 permanent,” Trump said. “But if Adam Hamilton is in, I’m not doing it. That’s it. I’m only doing it for him.”
Pitney said that kind of statement may not be illegal but “bears some resemblance to bribery or even extortion.”
He added, “ Other presidents have tried to model themselves on Washington or Lincoln. Trump is the first to model himself on Tony Soprano.”
The E15 waiver was neither exclusively for Kansas nor unique to the Trump administration. Summertime waivers have become common, including during the Biden administration .
The waiver lowers posted prices at the pump slightly, said Kenneth Gillingham, a Yale energy and environmental economist. “However, it comes at a cost of lowering fuel economy, so the savings generally cancel out or come close to canceling out.”
During one of many Ohio rallies to promote U.S. Sen. Jon Husted’s re-election and Vivek Ramaswamy’s bid for governor, Trump said a new Space Academy could land in Ohio. The Trump administration wants to break ground on the astronaut and scientist training school by 2027 , with a permanent location completed by 2031.
“And every other state wants it. So many states want it,” Trump said Oct. 3 . “And I have no doubt that as the birthplace of aviation and the home of the Wright brothers, if we win the midterms, Ohio will be very, very strongly considered.”
In August, Trump issued a proclamation calling for a commission to provide a report in late December about establishing the academy and a process to select the location. Several states including Texas, Florida and Ohio are expected to submit bids by Nov. 16 .
During an Oct. 17 Kentucky rally , Trump announced another project he said hinged on the Republican, Andy Barr, winning the U.S. Senate against Democrat Charles Booker.
Trump said the Defense Department will invest $100 million in Antheia’s drug manufacturing facility in Winchester, Kentucky.
“But you have to win, Andy, otherwise forget it,” Trump said.
The next day, Antheia announced it had received a commitment from the Defense Department for a direct, long-term loan of up to $80 million.
“The conditional loan commitment specifies additional steps Antheia must complete before financial close, including satisfying various financial, legal, technical, investment, due diligence, and other requirements,” Antheia wrote. The company’s announcement did not list Republicans winning office as a condition.
Trump said keeping Republican majorities would help people seeking financial help for illnesses linked to contaminated water at Camp Lejeune, a North Carolina Marine Corps base.
“If we win the House and the Senate I am directing the Department of Justice to settle all remaining legitimate claims as soon as possible and get it off the books and get it finished,” Trump said Oct. 20 at the Pitt-Greenville Airport.
“If we don’t win, there’s no money,” Trump said. “If we do win, you’re getting it.”
A 2022 federal law allows people to file a claim if they lived or worked at the military base between 1953 and 1987 and became ill after exposure to dangerous chemicals. The Justice Department announced in September it had paid out $879 million so far, but a backlog remains .
Democratic Gov. Josh Stein responded on X , “Real leaders fight for the people, not for power. To condition doing the right thing by sick North Carolinians on who wins the election is foul.”
Trump said at a September rally that he would send more Hurricane Helene aid to North Carolina only if Republican Michael Whatley wins the U.S. Senate over former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. Then he said he was “kidding.”
Trump’s promises “can make voters want to do what he says, so they can get the money, or it can make voters want to do the opposite, because they don’t like being threatened,” Whitney Ross Manzo, a Meredith College political science professor, said. But she said only people who already support him believe him, so it’s unlikely to make much of an impact.
Since September, Trump has said every adult U.S. citizen will receive a $5,000 payment if Republicans win control of the House and Senate.
On top of the steep demands of fulfilling such a costly promise, Trump has added an impossible condition: “You have to spend the money in the United States of America.”
The payout would require congressional approval and could cost more than $1 trillion.
“Promises of direct cash payments within a month of an election are a new precedent in the modern presidency,” said Thomas C. Sutton, Baldwin Wallace University political science professor emeritus.
An October NBC poll found most adults don’t believe the payment will materialize. About 14% said they “definitely” or “probably” expect to receive such a check if the GOP keeps control of Congress, while 71% said they “definitely” or “probably” won’t get one.
Trump has already flashed some money sent to certain groups ahead of the election , such as a $90 payment to certain enrollees in Medicare Part B and $500 per person for some Affordable Care Act enrollees.
Political scientists pointed to Trump’s record level disapproval ratings and Democrats’ competitiveness in red states as signs that a strategy of promised “goodies” may not work.
“If for nothing else, Trump has a real credibility problem and it seems most people don’t believe him,” said Chapman University political science professor Lori Cox Han.
PolitiFact Chief Correspondent Louis Jacobson and Staff Writer Loreben Tuquero contributed to this article.
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