As two Dan Sullivans are on Alaska’s ballot, litigation continues. Here’s what we know
PolitiFact ·
The Alaska U.S. Senate race is rife with drama. There’s name calling , a catchy rhyming jingle , a bombshell news story , an allegation of a candidate fleeing town and a heap of fighting in court because two candidates both named Dan Sullivan appear on the ballot.
So far, President Donald Trump has been unsuccessful at halting certification of election results if Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan loses re-election in one of the pivotal midterms contests. Trump accused Democrats of criminal wrongdoing, although some legal experts are skeptical of his assertion.
Although the tale of two Dan Sullivans began months ago, it drew more national attention in late October when the Trump administration filed a lawsuit. Days later, The New York Times published a story that said people acting on behalf of Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee recruited the second Sullivan to run in effort to sow confusion and draw votes away from the incumbent. Democrats have denied the allegations.
Here’s where the Alaska ballot fracas stands going into Election Day.
Alaska tried to prevent the second Sullivan from running. Courts let him remain on the ballot.
Sen. Sullivan and Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher, both filed to run for the U.S. Senate as Republicans before the state’s June 1 deadline.
Alaska Division of Elections Director Carol Beecher sent a letter to the new Sullivan in mid-June saying he could not run because he did not file a good faith candidacy and intended to confuse or mislead voters.
The teacher appealed to the Alaska Superior Court and won. The court wrote that there is no state statute saying a person must file for office in “good faith” or addressing a candidate’s motive for running.
The state Supreme Court in a one-paragraph ruling affirmed the Superior Court ruling and left it to the discretion of the Division of Elections how to list his name. Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. appears on the ballot with no party affiliation, and the senator’s name says he is the Republican incumbent. Gerald Heikes, another Republican, and Democrat Peltola, a former congresswoman, also appear on the ballot.
Trump administration has come up short in court so far
The Trump administration filed a lawsuit Oct. 22 seeking to halt certification if the incumbent loses, alleging voter confusion..
Although ballot stacking schemes by both parties are common, a lawsuit pre-emptively seeking to halt certification is unusual.
On Nov. 1, U.S. District Court Judge Sharon L. Gleason dismissed the lawsuit , writing that the federal government’s request to segregate ballots cast for Daniel J. Sullivan to allow further investigation would violate Alaskans’ right to a secret ballot.
“Such late-breaking changes to the election rules are strongly disfavored,” Gleason wrote.
The Justice Department plans to appeal .
Is it illegal?
Following The New York Times article, Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered an investigation to determine if any state laws were broken.
Alaska U.S. Attorney Michael Heyman told reporters federal officials launched criminal and civil investigations into groups affiliated with Peltola months ago. He said there had been “a significant surge of law enforcement assets to Alaska” following the Times article. Heyman did not identify who was being investigated or which law they were accused of breaking.
FBI agents have contacted donors to Daniel J. Sullivan in remote Alaskan communities, including a place only accessible by air or sea, and Massachusetts.
Scott Kendall, an Alaska election lawyer, previously told PolitiFact that what The New York Times describes is troubling, but not proof of a crime.
“It’s unsavory, it’s gross, but it’s not illegal under any Alaska law that I’m aware of,” Kendall said.
Trump has repeatedly accused Democrats of committing fraud and said that the “fake” Sullivan “has DISAPPEARED! Nobody can find him, including Law Enforcement.” CBS reported that he left town and is known to friends as a world traveler.
What this means for the election
Alaska’s use of ranked choice voting may negate the attempt to pull votes from the incumbent Republican.
In this system, voters rank the candidates in order of preference. If a candidate wins more than 50% of first choices, then that ends the race. If not, the candidate who received the fewest votes is eliminated and voters who ranked that candidate first have their vote re-allocated to their second choice. That process repeats until a candidate wins over 50% of the vote.
Ranked choice voting “addresses the ‘spoiler’ tactic and makes it much less effective,” said Will Mantell, a spokesperson for FairVote, an organization that supports ranked choice.
In a state without ranked choice, voters couldn’t rank both Sullivans. If someone voted for the newcomer Sullivan, then that candidate would get that vote, Mantell said, with “no backup choice, no safety valve.”
Sen. Sullivan has an upbeat jingle radio ad that instructs voters:
“Put Dan. S. Sullivan, in that number one spot.
“Give him all the backing that we’ve got.
“Dan S. is your No. 1, that’s what we say.
“If he’s not, rank him second, don’t throw your vote away.
“Dan S., Daniel, Gerry – just don’t rank Mary….”
Russell Luke, an assistant professor of political science at University of Alaska Fairbanks, said it is “highly unlikely that the existence of two Dan Sullivans on the ballot will be the decisive factor in this election.”
He said Alaska voters have been aware of the situation for months, and the incumbent is clearly marked on the ballot. “In the unlikely event that voters are confused about which Sullivan to vote for, Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system provides voters the ability to rank both,” said Luke.
Glenn Daniel Wright, a professor of social science at the University of Alaska Southeast, agreed it’s unlikely the second Dan Sullivan will affect the race.
It’s possible that the Alaska seat determines control of the Senate.
The election result may not not be known until 15 days after the election when the final count of absentee ballots is completed and ranked-choice tabulations occur.
The senator said during a CNN interview that he will accept the election results regardless of the outcome.
PolitiFact Staff Researcher Caryn Baird contributed to this report.
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